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Covid-19 (Coronavirus) Epidemic in the UK - Update 20 March 2020

How will the Covid-19 (coronavirus) epidemic in the UK develop? In February 2020, there were sporadic cases across the UK and in March 2020, we saw a more sustained increase in cases. Based on current trends, the total cumulative number of cases of COVID-19 in UK could reach 47,989 (95% CIs 33,961 to 67,743) in another 10 days, using data published on 19 March 2020.

We have assumed that each day's cases are a fixed proportion of the total cases up to the day before. It is also assumed the rate will not change in the next 10 days; e.g., it is not going to be influenced by new interventions, increased self-isolation and other factors.

To estimate confidence intervals, we used the prediction confidence intervals from the linear regression model (using logarithm of "cumulative number of cases" as response) to perform Monte Carlo simulations to generate samples from the corresponding normal distribution. Subsequently, we applied the reverse transformation (exponential) to the simulated samples and calculated the 95% confidence Intervals.

If the number of cases is below predictions, this would imply that control measures and behavioural change are having some impact in keeping numbers down. It could also though reflect changes in the policy for testing people who are suspected cases. We will update chart this regulary if we can get reliable data about the number of Covid-19 cases in the UK and the data is not skewed by the government decision to cut back on community testing.

Azeem Majeed and Mansour Taghavi Azar Sharabiani

Doubling time (days): 2.7
Prediction for next 10 days:

20/03/2020 4748  ( 3513 ,  6418 )
21/03/2020 6140  ( 4533 ,  8367 )
22/03/2020 7939  ( 5828 ,  10813 )
23/03/2020 10266  ( 7495 ,  14048 )
24/03/2020 13275  ( 9688 ,  18229 )
25/03/2020 17165  ( 12445 ,  23680 )
26/03/2020 22196  ( 15987 ,  30843 )
27/03/2020 28701  ( 20578 ,  40167 )
28/03/2020 37112  ( 26423 ,  52291 )
29/03/2020 47989  ( 33961 ,  67743 )




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