Skip to main content

Covid-19 (Coronavirus) Epidemic in the UK - Update 20 March 2020

How will the Covid-19 (coronavirus) epidemic in the UK develop? In February 2020, there were sporadic cases across the UK and in March 2020, we saw a more sustained increase in cases. Based on current trends, the total cumulative number of cases of COVID-19 in UK could reach 47,989 (95% CIs 33,961 to 67,743) in another 10 days, using data published on 19 March 2020.

We have assumed that each day's cases are a fixed proportion of the total cases up to the day before. It is also assumed the rate will not change in the next 10 days; e.g., it is not going to be influenced by new interventions, increased self-isolation and other factors.

To estimate confidence intervals, we used the prediction confidence intervals from the linear regression model (using logarithm of "cumulative number of cases" as response) to perform Monte Carlo simulations to generate samples from the corresponding normal distribution. Subsequently, we applied the reverse transformation (exponential) to the simulated samples and calculated the 95% confidence Intervals.

If the number of cases is below predictions, this would imply that control measures and behavioural change are having some impact in keeping numbers down. It could also though reflect changes in the policy for testing people who are suspected cases. We will update chart this regulary if we can get reliable data about the number of Covid-19 cases in the UK and the data is not skewed by the government decision to cut back on community testing.

Azeem Majeed and Mansour Taghavi Azar Sharabiani

Doubling time (days): 2.7
Prediction for next 10 days:

20/03/2020 4748  ( 3513 ,  6418 )
21/03/2020 6140  ( 4533 ,  8367 )
22/03/2020 7939  ( 5828 ,  10813 )
23/03/2020 10266  ( 7495 ,  14048 )
24/03/2020 13275  ( 9688 ,  18229 )
25/03/2020 17165  ( 12445 ,  23680 )
26/03/2020 22196  ( 15987 ,  30843 )
27/03/2020 28701  ( 20578 ,  40167 )
28/03/2020 37112  ( 26423 ,  52291 )
29/03/2020 47989  ( 33961 ,  67743 )




Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Example ADHD Referral Letter

Dear Dr, I am writing to refer a 28-year-old male patient of mine, Mr [Patient's Name], for assessment for the diagnosis and treatment of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). After a thorough clinical assessment, I believe that Mr. [Patient's Name] meets the criteria for adult ADHD as outlined in NHS guidance for primary care teams in SE London. Mr [Patient's Name] has been under my care for XX years and, during this time, he reports several symptoms (greater than five symptoms in total) consistent with ADHD in adults that have been present for more than six months. These symptoms include difficulties in focusing, following through on tasks, hyperactivity, forgetfulness, impulsiveness, restlessness, and irritability. Mr [Patient's Name] also reports being easily distracted, struggling with time management, organisation, and completing tasks efficiently. Many of Mr [Patient's Name]'s symptoms have been present since he was under 12 years old; and have
Post a Comment
Read more

Dr Curran and Partners – Clinical Update 10 August 2023

1. Measles The UKHSA has warned that unless MMR vaccination rates improve, London could experience a large measles outbreak. Measles is potentially a very serious illness with important complications - but is preventable though vaccination.  Please ensure patients and their families are up to date with their vaccinations. Please also check the vaccine status of new patients - particular migrants - and enter details onto the medical record of any vaccines given elsewhere. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/london-at-risk-of-measles-outbreaks-with-modelling-estimating-tens-of-thousands-of-cases 2. Shingles vaccination The shingles vaccine programme is being expanded. From September, GP practices will offer: - Those aged 70-79, 1 dose of Zostavax or 2 doses of Shingrix - People aged 50+ with a weak immune system, 2 doses of Shingrix - Those turning 65 & 70, two doses of Shingrix vaccine. For further details, see https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/shingles-vacc
Post a Comment
Read more

How can we work successfully across the health and care system to make a success of Pharmacy First?

Pharmacies in England to begin treating patients for seven common conditions. How can we work successfully across the health and care system to make a success of Pharmacy First? 1. The Pharmacy First scheme aims to provide convenient access to healthcare through community pharmacies. Patients with minor ailments or common conditions can seek advice and treatment directly from their local pharmacy instead of visiting a general practice, urgent care centre or emergency department. The conditions covered by the scheme may vary depending on local funding arrangements and participation of pharmacies.  2, A potential problem with Pharmacy First is pharmacists misdiagnosing a patient's condition. It may also lead to delays in patients seeing doctors when medical assessment is needed. To mitigate these risks, appropriate safeguards and referral pathways should be established, ensuring timely medical assessment when necessary. The scheme will also increase the workload of pharmacies, thereb
Post a Comment
Read more