Medical Centre

How will the Covid-19 (coronavirus) epidemic in the UK develop? In February 2020, there were sporadic cases across the UK and in March 2020, we saw a more sustained increase in cases. Based on current trends, the total cumulative number of cases of COVID-19 in UK could reach 47,989 (95% CIs 33,961 to 67,743) in another 10 days, using data published on 19 March 2020. We have assumed that each day's cases are a fixed proportion of the total cases up to the day before. It is also assumed the rate will not change in the next 10 days; e.g., it is not going to be influenced by new interventions, increased self-isolation and other factors. To estimate confidence intervals, we used the prediction confidence intervals from the linear regression model (using logarithm of "cumulative number of cases" as response) to perform Monte Carlo simulations to generate samples from the corresponding normal distribution. Subsequently, we applied the reverse transformation (exponential) ...

How will the Covid-19 (coronavirus) epidemic in the UK develop? In February 2020, there were sporadic cases across the UK and in March 2020, we saw a more sustained increase in cases. Based on current trends, the total cumulative number of cases of COVID-19 in UK could reach  21,264 (95% CIs: 14881 to 30459 ) in another 10 days, using data published on 15 March 2020. We have assumed that each day's cases are a fixed proportion of the total cases up to the day before. It is also assumed the rate will not change in the next 7 days; e.g., it is not going to be influenced by new interventions, increased self-isolation and other factors. To estimate confidence intervals, we used the prediction confidence intervals from the linear regression model (using logarithm of "cumulative number of cases" as response) to perform Monte Carlo simulations to generate samples from the corresponding normal distribution. Subsequently, we applied the reverse transformation (exponential)...

How will the Covid-19 (coronavirus) epidemic in the UK develop? In February 2020, there were sporadic cases across the UK and in March 2020, we saw a more sustained increase in cases. Based on current trends, the total cumulative number of cases of COVID-19 in UK could reach 17,240 (95% CIs: 11,823 to 25,270) in another 10 days, based on data published on 14 March. We have assumed that each day's cases are a fixed proportion of the total cases up to the day before. It is also assumed the rate will not change in the next 7 days, e.g., it is not going to be influenced by new interventions, increased self-isolation and other factors. To estimate confidence intervals, we used the prediction confidence intervals from the linear regression model (using logarithm of "cumulative number of cases" as response) to perform Monte Carlo simulations to generate samples from the corresponding normal distribution. Subsequently, we applied the reverse transformation (exponential) to...

How will the Covid-19 (coronavirus) epidemic in the UK develop? In February 2020, there were sporadic cases across the UK and in March 2020, we saw a more sustained increase in cases. Based on current trends, the total cumulative number of cases of COVID-19 in UK could reach 5,895 (95% CIs: 4,046 to 8,400) in another 7 days. We have assumed that each day's cases are a fixed proportion of the total cases up to the day before. It is also assumed the rate will not change in the next 7 days, e.g., it is not going to be influenced by new interventions, increased self-isolation and other factors. To estimate confidence intervals, we used the prediction confidence intervals from the linear regression model (using logarithm of "cumulative number of cases" as response) to perform Monte Carlo simulations to generate samples from the corresponding normal distribution. Subsequently, we applied the reverse transformation (exponential) to the simulated samples and calculated th...

As one of the largest organisations in the world, employing around 1.5 million people, and the provider of publicly funded healthcare in the UK, the National Health Service (NHS) should be a role model in workplace health. It should be providing employers with guidance and good practice that can be replicated elsewhere. However, currently the NHS performs poorly on many measures of staff health. For example, sickness absence rates among NHS staff are higher than the average for both the UK public sector and private sector. The health of NHS staff is a key factor in determining how well the NHS provides healthcare to patients. Improving workplace health and the support available to staff with health problems — such as enabling them to return to work after absence due to sickness — should be priorities for the NHS. The importance of good working environments in the NHS was emphasised in a 2019 General Medical Council report. The report noted that workplace pressures are associated w...

The Covid-19 (Coronavirus) infection is spreading more widely. The best way to protect yourself, your family and your work colleagues is through preventive actions such as regular handwashing, using disposable tissues when you cough and sneeze, and staying at home when you are unwell. Remember also not to touch your nose, mouth or eyes unless you have washed your hands recently. Many of my patients are informing me they are unable to buy hand sanitizer because pharmacies and supermarkets have no stock as people have been buying large amounts because of concerns about coronavirus (Covid-19) infection. Don’t bother buying hand sanitizer. Use soap and warm water instead. Washing your hands with soap and water is usually more effective than using hand sanitizers at removing germs, and is also better at preserving the "good" bacteria on your hands. Soap and water is also a lot cheaper than sanitizer. Finally, one person has recently died from coronavirus infection in the UK. ...