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How will the Covid-19 (coronavirus) epidemic in the UK develop?


How will the Covid-19 (coronavirus) epidemic in the UK develop? In February 2020, there were sporadic cases across the UK and in March 2020, we saw a more sustained increase in cases. Based on current trends, the total cumulative number of cases of COVID-19 in UK could reach 5,895 (95% CIs: 4,046 to 8,400) in another 7 days.

We have assumed that each day's cases are a fixed proportion of the total cases up to the day before. It is also assumed the rate will not change in the next 7 days, e.g., it is not going to be influenced by new interventions, increased self-isolation and other factors.

To estimate confidence intervals, we used the prediction confidence intervals from the linear regression model (using logarithm of "cumulative number of cases" as response) to perform Monte Carlo simulations to generate samples from the corresponding normal distribution. Subsequently, we applied the reverse transformation (exponential) to the simulated samples and calculated the 95% confidence Intervals.

The results of the model suggest that the NHS could be dealing with large numbers of patients with Covid-19 infection in the next 7-10 days. We will soon know how well prepared we are to deal with Covid-19 infection.

If the number of cases is below predictions, this would imply that control measures and behavioural change are having some impact in keeping numbers down. It could also though reflect changes in the policy for testing people who are suspected cases. We will update chart this regulary if we can get reliable data about the number of Covid-19 cases in the UK and the data is not skewed by the government decision to cut back on community testing.

Azeem Majeed and Mansour Taghavi Azar Sharabiani

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