Skip to main content

How will the Covid-19 (coronavirus) epidemic in the UK develop?


How will the Covid-19 (coronavirus) epidemic in the UK develop? In February 2020, there were sporadic cases across the UK and in March 2020, we saw a more sustained increase in cases. Based on current trends, the total cumulative number of cases of COVID-19 in UK could reach 5,895 (95% CIs: 4,046 to 8,400) in another 7 days.

We have assumed that each day's cases are a fixed proportion of the total cases up to the day before. It is also assumed the rate will not change in the next 7 days, e.g., it is not going to be influenced by new interventions, increased self-isolation and other factors.

To estimate confidence intervals, we used the prediction confidence intervals from the linear regression model (using logarithm of "cumulative number of cases" as response) to perform Monte Carlo simulations to generate samples from the corresponding normal distribution. Subsequently, we applied the reverse transformation (exponential) to the simulated samples and calculated the 95% confidence Intervals.

The results of the model suggest that the NHS could be dealing with large numbers of patients with Covid-19 infection in the next 7-10 days. We will soon know how well prepared we are to deal with Covid-19 infection.

If the number of cases is below predictions, this would imply that control measures and behavioural change are having some impact in keeping numbers down. It could also though reflect changes in the policy for testing people who are suspected cases. We will update chart this regulary if we can get reliable data about the number of Covid-19 cases in the UK and the data is not skewed by the government decision to cut back on community testing.

Azeem Majeed and Mansour Taghavi Azar Sharabiani

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Protecting Against the "Quad-demic": Influenza, Covid-19, Norovirus and RSV

As the NHS braces for a challenging winter season, it is grappling with a "quad-demic" of health emergencies caused by influenza, Covid-19, norovirus, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). This confluence of viral threats poses a significant risk to public health in the UK as well as putting strain on healthcare resources, emphasising the importance of preventive measures to safeguard public health. Public health measures such a vaccination and good personal hygiene are pivotal in reducing the impact of these illnesses, particularly for vulnerable groups. The Four Viruses: What Are They? Influenza: A highly contagious respiratory infection that causes significant illness each winter. It can lead to severe complications, particularly in the elderly, young children, pregnant women, and those with chronic health conditions. Covid-19: Though its most acute phase has passed, Covid-19 remains a concern, especially as new variants of SA...
Post a Comment
Read more

MPH Student Presentations on the NHS Care.Data Programme

As part of a session on primary care data in the Health Informatics module on the Imperial Master of Public Health Programme, I asked students to work in two groups to present arguments for and against the NHS Care.Data programme. Care.Data is an NHS programme that will extract data from the medical records held by general practitioners (GPs) in England. The Care.Data programme takes advantage of the very high level of use of electronic medical records by GPs in England. After extraction, data will be uploaded to the NHS Health and Social Care Information Centre (HSCIC). The data will then be used for functions such as health care planning, monitoring disease patterns and research. The programme has been controversial with proponents arguing that the programme will bring many benefits for the NHS and the population of England; and opponents arguing it is a major breach of privacy. You can view the two presentations to help inform you further about these arguments: Arguments fo...
6 comments
Read more

How can we work successfully across the health and care system to make a success of Pharmacy First?

Pharmacies in England to begin treating patients for seven common conditions. How can we work successfully across the health and care system to make a success of Pharmacy First? 1. The Pharmacy First scheme aims to provide convenient access to healthcare through community pharmacies. Patients with minor ailments or common conditions can seek advice and treatment directly from their local pharmacy instead of visiting a general practice, urgent care centre or emergency department. The conditions covered by the scheme may vary depending on local funding arrangements and participation of pharmacies.  2, A potential problem with Pharmacy First is pharmacists misdiagnosing a patient's condition. It may also lead to delays in patients seeing doctors when medical assessment is needed. To mitigate these risks, appropriate safeguards and referral pathways should be established, ensuring timely medical assessment when necessary. The scheme will also increase the workload of pharmacies, thereb...
Post a Comment
Read more