Skip to main content

The failure of England’s Test and Trace system means we will be in and out of lockdowns for some time

Whether we will come of the 4-week lockdown on schedule will depend on how low the government’s Covid-19 strategy brings the R-value for the country. The R value is the average number of people that each new case of Covid-19 infects. If the R value for England is less than one, the daily number of cases will start to fall; and if the R value is greater than one, the daily number of cases will continue to increase. Once the R value is below one, and the daily number of cases start to fall, the number of people being admitted to hospital and the number of deaths will also start to fall.

There is though a lag before the number of hospital admissions and deaths begin to fall. This is because it can take 1-2 weeks from becoming infected before a person is unwell enough to need hospital treatment. There is then as further period of time before death. Hence, case numbers start to fall first, followed by the number of people admitted to hospital and then finally, the number of people dying from Covid=19.

The “nightmare scenario” that we will face is that the new lockdown measures are not strict enough or people do not comply with them, meaning that the R value stays above one and the numbers of cases, hospital admissions and deaths do not fall. This will mean continuing restrictions after the 4-week lockdown period ends. Even if the number of Covid-19 cases does fall to a more manageable level by the end of the lockdown, there will still be ongoing restrictions on social activities, resulting in Christmas 2020 being very different from a normal Christmas.

It’s also possible that we will see future waves of Covid-19 infection after lockdown measures are relaxed – as we saw earlier in the year – meaning that we may get further lockdowns followed by periods of relaxation of lockdown measures. Unfortunately, ever since the start of the pandemic, England’s Test and Trace system has not worked well enough to suppress local outbreaks promptly and keep the number of cases low – as we have seen in countries such as New Zealand, Taiwan and South Korea.

Hence, this cycle of lockdowns and restrictions of activities, followed by some loosening of these restrictions, may not end until we have a safe and effective vaccine that can finally bring Covid-19 under control in England and across the rest of the world. The encouraging news is that the early results about the safety and effectiveness of the new vaccines being developed for Covid-19 are very positive; and we may be able to launch a large-scale vaccine programme in the United Kingdom very soon. This vaccine programme is going to be complex and challenging to deliver but the NHS does have the expertise to do this.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Example ADHD Referral Letter

Dear Dr, I am writing to refer a 28-year-old male patient of mine, Mr [Patient's Name], for assessment for the diagnosis and treatment of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). After a thorough clinical assessment, I believe that Mr. [Patient's Name] meets the criteria for adult ADHD as outlined in NHS guidance for primary care teams in SE London. Mr [Patient's Name] has been under my care for XX years and, during this time, he reports several symptoms (greater than five symptoms in total) consistent with ADHD in adults that have been present for more than six months. These symptoms include difficulties in focusing, following through on tasks, hyperactivity, forgetfulness, impulsiveness, restlessness, and irritability. Mr [Patient's Name] also reports being easily distracted, struggling with time management, organisation, and completing tasks efficiently. Many of Mr [Patient's Name]'s symptoms have been present since he was under 12 years old; and have
Post a Comment
Read more

Dr Curran and Partners – Clinical Update 10 August 2023

1. Measles The UKHSA has warned that unless MMR vaccination rates improve, London could experience a large measles outbreak. Measles is potentially a very serious illness with important complications - but is preventable though vaccination.  Please ensure patients and their families are up to date with their vaccinations. Please also check the vaccine status of new patients - particular migrants - and enter details onto the medical record of any vaccines given elsewhere. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/london-at-risk-of-measles-outbreaks-with-modelling-estimating-tens-of-thousands-of-cases 2. Shingles vaccination The shingles vaccine programme is being expanded. From September, GP practices will offer: - Those aged 70-79, 1 dose of Zostavax or 2 doses of Shingrix - People aged 50+ with a weak immune system, 2 doses of Shingrix - Those turning 65 & 70, two doses of Shingrix vaccine. For further details, see https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/shingles-vacc
Post a Comment
Read more

Why we need to put an end to the GANFYD culture in the UK

One of the causes of increased workload in general practice are the many requests that doctors get for letters, reports and forms from patients or from external organisations. It’s now so common that doctors have coined a term for it: GANFYD – Get A Note From Your Doctor.  It’s seems that large sections of society can’t function without these “letters from doctors”. Instead of using common sense or employing their own clinical advisers, external organisations make repeated requests to NHS doctors for letters which are often not at all needed. Often the worst offenders come from the public sector – e.g. universities who seem to look upon NHS general practice as a source of free occupational health advice for their students. Universities never – of course - offer to pay for this advice they get from NHS GPs. Instead, university requests will come with a mealy-mouthed statement that any fee is the responsibility of the student. Like doctors are going to impose heavy fees on impoverished s
Post a Comment
Read more